August 2024 Mortgage Monitor

ATLANTA and NEW YORK, August 5, 2024 – Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE), a leading global provider of technology and data, today released its August 2024 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report, based on the company’s industry-leading mortgage, real estate and public records data sets.

Though the ICE Home Price Index (HPI) has shown a general slowdown in the rate of home price growth through June – and in some locales, price declines driven by surplus inventory – mortgage holders’ equity levels continue to hit new heights. As Andy Walden, ICE Vice President of Research and Analysis, explains, there is more outstanding mortgage debt today than at any point in history, but at the same time, overall market leverage remains near all-time lows.

“Outstanding mortgage debt, including both first and second liens, hit an all-time high in June, but growth in home prices has outpaced that gradual rise in debt,” said Walden. “Total cumulative debt leverage – essentially a loan-to-value ratio for the entire mortgage market – is equivalent to 44.1% of underlying home values, the third lowest leverage ratio we’ve seen in the past 20-plus years. Rising home prices have also continued to build the fortunes of existing homeowners, pushing tappable equity – the amount a mortgage holder can leverage while retaining a healthy 20% equity cushion – to its highest level ever.”

Nine out of ten of mortgage holders (48.5M) have some degree of tappable equity. A fair representation of the addressable market for second lien lending, tappable equity continues to be held primarily by higher credit score borrowers with low first lien interest rates. Two-thirds of such equity is held by mortgage holders with credit scores of 760 or higher, with a similar share held by those with first lien rates below 4%.

Three out of five (32M) mortgage holders have at least $100K in tappable equity; 4.6M have at least $500K, and 1.2M have $1M or more. Higher equity levels tend to correspond with lower first lien interest rates, as those borrowers, on average, were able to capitalize on record low interest rates while also buying into the market earlier at lower prices. The average first lien rate of borrowers without tappable equity is approximately 5.5%, nearly a full percentage point above those with up to $50K available to borrow against (4.45%). Borrowers with $50-$199K to borrow against have average first lien rates of just above 4%, while those with $500K or more to borrow against have average rates of around 3.75%.

“Home equity lending has been sluggish since interest rates began their climb higher early in 2022,” Walden said. “As the Fed raised short-term lending rates, accessing equity became more expensive for homeowners, evidenced by the anemic growth in such lending despite record levels of available, tappable equity.

“Industry expectations that the Fed will soon begin easing short-term rates could gradually change that dynamic, given the more direct impact short term rates have on home equity rate offerings, and lenders would do well to prepare. The ability to originate and service home equity loans alongside first lien mortgages will be key – to say nothing of using data-driven portfolio analysis to identify potential second lien customers.”

Fewer than 325K homeowners are underwater on their mortgages nationwide, putting just 0.60% of active loans in a negative equity position, with another 4.2% holding less than 10% equity in their homes. That said, Texas, Florida, and Louisiana are worth watching as inventory grows and home prices soften in some areas.

In Austin, for example, home prices are more than 15% off 2022 peaks, resulting in some 2.6% of mortgage holders owing more than their homes are currently worth. Similarly, in San Antonio, 2.7% of homes are underwater. Negative equity rates are also rising in Florida, as Cape Coral, Lakeland, North Port and Jacksonville – where inventories have surged and home prices are softening – have all seen an increase in negative equity. The same is true of New Orleans and Baton Rouge in Louisiana. Nationwide, 84% of underwater mortgages were originated within the past 3.5 years; that share climbs above 97% in areas like San Antonio, Austin, Cape Coral and North Port, where prices have pulled back from recent highs.

Much more information on these and other topics can be found in this month’s Mortgage Monitor.